Illiquid Assets

When at First you do not Succeed, Ban, Ban Again

Illiquid Assets — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 00:51:48 +0000

If you have not heard President Obama has issued another Ban on off-shore drilling putting the entire industry’s future in the hands of Ken Salazar DOI Chief Muckerupper. This on the heels of the first ban being struck down by the courts for being unnecessarily punitive and far reaching. To fix this flaw the Administration made the ban exactly the same except that shallow water drilling is now ok, and since there is next to no shallow water exploration going on the effect is identical to the first ban. So much for a re-write with real impact.

It also does not seem to address the issue of the loss of production and costs to the Industry as a result of an illegal and arbitrary ban issued by a knee-jerk President and his incompetent roster of bureaucrats. Since President is second only to God now in stature as the One rules from on the mount, a little do over is entirely within the realm of acceptable actions even though the jobs toll is starting to mount and the recovery time to reestablish exploration programs lengthens. I am not an oil industry cheerleader except that they employee people and pay them well, something the American Economy surely needs right now.

I would simply ask if all deepwater drilling has been halted worldwide if, as the Secretary of the Inferior Ken Salazar maintains, it is so dangerous and ill-conceived and lacking in technological safeguards, would not all responsible Governments be imposing the same ban?

For the record Canada is drilling a well at twice the depth of the BP one, the drill rig lost was no where near its maximum drilling depth, and there are lots more deeper wells. The spin to the public was this was some untried experiment that ended in disaster. When in reality it was simply a series of unfortunate incidents that resulted in an incredible tragedy, kind of like when Obama got elected President.

Blogusinterruptus

Illiquid Assets — Sat, 26 Jun 2010 19:14:36 +0000

If you have not noticed blogging has ground to a halt here on IlliquidAssets.net, this is due to a very heavy work schedule. I have been trying to keep my brain from exploding by using twitter to get out my musings in microblogs (love that term). (see sidebar)

I am getting things under control and will be resuming normal blogging by the end of June, so please be patient and also look through the archives for blogs you may have missed.

Follow me on Twitter @DarylT in the interim.

Thanks

Illiquid Assets

Poor Little President

Illiquid Assets — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 08:53:04 +0000

There has been much attention garnered on President Obama’s press conference on the oil spill last week. Having read the usual critiques from the US media I never saw anyone get the real meaning behind the President’s words and actions in regards to energy and his agenda to advance the democrats play for the Triple Crown of reform.

The Triple Crown

The Democrats have long had the “Ultimate Progressive Plan for a more Equitable America” agenda but never thought they could actually get the biggest prize of enacting the Triple Crown of reform. So far they rammed through Healthcare Reform, Financial Regulatory reforms caps off the process started with the Credit Card bill last year, the last jewel in the crown is now on the table in the form of Energy and Climate legislation. If they can pass that before November they will have pulled off the largest lurch to the left in American history and progressives are practically peeing their pants at the prospect.

Poor Little President

This brings us the the press conference that was held last week as the President did not take the blame directly as some have inferred, but rather blamed the depth of corruption impeding the speed of his always correct (reinforced by something happening; which seems to be with pretty great timing for this administration) reforms agenda that is being prosecuted through the bureaucracy. Others claimed that he was the beaten down President that had no conviction or outrage, seemed helpless and lost. I instead saw a President playing a very well staged role of a modern David facing the Goliath of Oil Companies.

This victim of Government corruption card played by the President is a pretty thin attempt to justify what will become a much more hard line approach to energy policy. It is a clear call for the troops to rally in behind Energy using the increased stature of the dangers of energy exploration and the cost of the US addiction to oil. They have lost the Climate Change as a catalyst for energy policy debate, running into hard realities of renewable energy technology’s scalability, so now the debate will switch to Climate Change with emphasis on the Dangers to the Environment from the activities of oil exploration and production.

This is a complex bit of stagecraft to set the scene for the renewed push to get Energy legislation through the Congress before November so that the President and the Democrats can claim the Triple Crown of Progressive policy. Even worse I think it will work because nobody got it in the press as far as I can see.

Here is a Lesson in Humility

Illiquid Assets — Sun, 30 May 2010 17:09:34 +0000

I predicted that we would have a US Equities Market drop after Q1 earnings back down towards my 9700 DJIA mark, but I also alluded to the reason for the drop was to be a pull back in consumer spending and increases in CPI pushed by the gains in PPI. Well we have dropped, right on schedule I might add, down to 9800′s before pulling up again to end over 10,000.

So why am I not claiming the big “W” here?

I was wrong.

The sovereign debt crisis was responsible for the drop on the rally in the USD and flight to safety reactions in the credit markets which bled over into commodities and equities. My timing and severity were right on target but my catalyst was not correct (it may still turn out to pass that we stay lower on the reasons for my prediction but there is no way to know until mid June) so I was wrong. Plain and simple.

I am writing this in hopes others who make market predictions based on fundamental macro economics also learn to admit that even if the reaction appears to be a validation, you are not right unless you call the catalyst.(also applies to those who work in the sciences, especially climate).

There is no shame in admitting ones errors and mistakes, in fact if more people where “stand up guys” when it comes to admissions of fallibility we would be far better off because that is how you learn. That is not to say straight up liars should be let off when they come clean (looking at you AG Blumenthal), it is saying if you put your opinion or idea out there and/or make a decision that turns out to be less than optimal then take responsibility for that by saying you were wrong.

Being wrong is not being stupid, its being human, not admitting when you are wrong?

Now that is being stupid.

Thus ends the lesson.

And You Thought Your Country was in Trouble : Canada

Illiquid Assets — Tue, 04 May 2010 18:21:33 +0000

Second whack at the cat for my New Feature, I will post stories from countries around the world that will make you shake your head and may even, if the country indicated is not yours, make you think that things are not so bad. This week takes us to the largest city of Canada for a story that is just praying for someone to suffer ill effects during a cold winter in order to test the Government liability.

The Country

Canada

The Headline

City to cut idling limit to 1 minute

Best Part…

“I understand why people might want to get into a warm car, but the price that we’re paying for that is with our health and with climate change,” he said, who called the need to warm up a car a myth. “It’s much better to get in the car and warm it up as you’re driving it.”

Tell that to my Ice Covered Windows! – IA

Link to the Article…

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto/story.html?id=2982519#ixzz0mzBNOoL8

IA Dictionary: Consensus

Illiquid Assets — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 15:17:04 +0000

From the Illiquid Assets New Dictionary of Over-used Talking Points comes the following real word definition …

Consensus

- A group of experts without an original idea amongst them.

Which Part of the Taxed Enough Already (TEA) Party Movement are you just not Hearing

Illiquid Assets — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 22:04:24 +0000

Paul Volker, the octogenarian economic advisor to President Obama who is so past his best before date it is beyond comprehension, has handed the keys to the election to the Republicans if they are willing to actually believe in them. Taxes. Massive New Taxes, a veritable plethora of taxation policies that run completely counter to the root of the Tea Party Movement that is getting traction in America.

Volker says Energy Taxes, VAT Taxes, Carbon Taxes are all on the table to feed the pig that is the US Federal Government and fund its massive spending spree that has no end in sight. I wonder if the Democrats are simply not listening, could they possibly be so disconnected that they have not been watching any of what has been happening out in the Real America?

To answer that I will answer that by quoting the left’s own News Network, MSNBC as a pundit named…ahh hell who cares who it is cause they are all the same, states that the Republicans (the ones who put Scott Brown in Office replacing the Lion of Senate a feat thought impossible by most) are down to just the roots as a party with no support…liberal progressives kill me with their fantasy disco thought patterns. The Republicans just need to fill their ranks with politicians that actually believe the message on lower taxation and spending and size of Government, they could win just with the low taxation message but go for the trifecta.

Any conservative politician who simply listens and takes up the causes of the Tea Party will have a huge advantage in the fall, and as I stated the Democrats are handing them the keys to a decisive victory all one has to do is take it. The Republicans simply need to do the following; if a candidate cannot support the Tea Party principles then replace him or her with someone who can. Plus keep the social issues to a minimum, meaning those issues do not need work right now, what we need is Government Reform not social platform support, so leave the evangelical ones at home with any progressive social tendencies.

On Arctic Ice Extent: Where is the collective sigh of relief?

Illiquid Assets — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 18:43:04 +0000

Ice,Ice Baby! Arctic Ice setting satellite era record for the latest date of maximum extent as well as showing an impressive recovery since the Big Ice Scare of 2007.

So why is there not a huge sigh of relief across the entire spectrum of Climate Sciences? I mean this recovery has been robust and sustained but is completely discounted by the AGW science proponents. Is it because they think they would be taken to task on AGW? Is it because they made predictions that we would be Ice Free in the summer by 2013? Perhaps it is simple hubris and they cannot even admit they were wrong?

Whatever the reason I for one sleep better knowing that Arctic Ice is recovering since 2007, not because it proves anything about AGW but because it is one less catastrophe I have to worry about that was predicted to happen in the near future. Plus I stand to win a bet.

Read the full press release via the link below. I am struck by the constant redirection of the data points by the statement in its here is the reported increase, but do not look there… look over here at this its bad! Ice increased here in this area but it was warmer than normal over here! Look at the warmth not the ice!

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I Thought the Deniers Got all The Money

Illiquid Assets — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 17:00:42 +0000

James Hansen the NASA Global Warming Fearmonger in Chief was just awarded the Spohie Prize and 100,000 Dollars for his incoherent ranting about climate Armageddon. Hey wait a minute here… I thought the Deniers got all the money!

This proves that Norway, home of the Nobel Peace Prize, really should not be allowed to award anything anymore. Sorry Norwegians while I applaud your exploitation of oil wealth, but I have to point out you use that wealth to feed the world a line of crap about climate change via these Awards.

Just a little too hypocritical for me.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63636N20100407

New Feature! the "and you thought your Country was in trouble" file : United Kingdom

Illiquid Assets — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 20:42:05 +0000

Trying out a new feature starting right now, I will post stories from countries around the world that will make you shake your head and may even, if the country indicated is not yours, make you think that things are not so bad. This week takes us to the United Kingdom for a story that is appalling in its treatment of citizens and indicative of the true breadth of the nanny state.

The Country

The United Kingdom

The Headline

Pet shop owner fined £1,000 and told to wear an electronic tag… for selling a GOLDFISH to a boy aged 14

Link to the Article…

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1262250/Pet-shop-owner-sold-goldfish-boy-hauled-court-ordered-wear-electronic-tag.html?ITO=1490